Author: ccloh Strategic Investor Zone

STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (46)

Continued from STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (45) By now it should not be in doubt that global markets are in a state of correction.  From Elliott wave perspective correction is not just an opportunity to bargain hunt or accumulate but also a state whereby possibilities could be eliminated or firmed up based on wave count rules.  The present STI correction is an opportunity to re-examine all the possible wave counts in the past to determine their validity. STI-0This is the case whereby 2955.68 is considered Primary wave 2 of Cycle wave 3 of the...

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STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (45)

Continued from STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (44) STI plummeted today to an intra-day low of 3270.22 from 3392.29 and closed 3290.62 for the day.  That was a drop of 101.67 points or 2.99% in a single day.  Surprising ? Unexpected ?  Well not really if one follows Elliott wave analysis as the drop is something expected all along. Recap previous Elliott wave calculation done by the Degree Calculator as shown below STI is now in the Minor wave 3 which started from 3156.79 and a projected calculated target of 3668.461 to end the Minor...

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Portfolio — Apr 2019

Investment Portfolio 1. Received First REIT dividend of 2.15 cents/unit2. Received Kep REIT dividend of 1.39 cents/unit3. Entitled to MapletreeInd Trust scrip or cash dividend of 1.37 cents/unit4. Received MapletreeCom Trust dividend of 2.31 cents/unit5. Entitled to FrasersCom Trust scrip or cash dividend of 2.40 cents/unit6. Received CapitaMall Trust dividend of 2.88 cents/unit7. Received Frasers Cpt Trust dividend of 3.137 cents/unit8. Received Kep Corp dividend of 15 cents/share9. Received Genting SP dividend of 2 cents/shareStock Holding Price* Market Price Unrealized Profit/Loss Dividend Return Non-Strategic CapitaMall Trust $1.155 $2.42 +107.02% +88.24% First REIT $0.5973 $0.97 +62.01% +122.02% Genting SP $0.5314...

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Journey To Retirement Part 1.4 — Genting SP

Singapore Government announced on 3rd Apr 2019 the plan to expand the 2 IRs (Resort World Sentosa and Marina Bay Sands) with the requirement that the 2 IRs operators pumping in a total of S$9 billion (S$4.5 billion each) for the expansion.  Nothing surprising with that given that Singapore is already 1 foot into the IR or gaming industry and with the upcoming regional competition in particular the Japan IR, it is just a plain common sense one need to upgrade or expand.  It is only the pseudo-elite who probably possess not much of a common sense call it...

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STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (44)

Continued from STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (43) Before analyzing STI, will be looking at 2 other indices to provide a clearer direction for STI. HSIHSI has long been a leading indicator for STI as most will have observed how HSI intra-day movement can affect STI. Above is the HSI chart clearly doing a 5-wave Elliott wave impulse.  The question is has wave 5 completed or still have a bit more to go.  After wave 5 what’s followed shall be the corrective wave of A-B-C.  How deep the correction will depend on the degree of...

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STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (43)

Continued from STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (42) In previous analysis it was mentioned STI fell into 2 scenarios — M1 at 3250.27 and M2 at 3286.08.  The break above 3228.38 on 1st Apr 2019 has invalidated the M1 at 3250.27 scenario as it doesn’t fit into any Elliott wave correction pattern.  Thus, STI now left with the scenario of M1 at 3286.08. The above chart illustrates the invalidation for the scenario of M1 at 3250.27.  Though now M1 is at 3286.08 but whether M2 has completed at 3156.79 on 25th Mar 2019 is still...

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Corporate Result — Apr/May 2019

1. SPH REIT  —  5th Apr 20192. SPH  —  9th Apr 20193. Kep Infra Trust  —  15th Apr 20194. Kep DC Reit  —  15th Apr 20195. Kep T&T  —  16th Apr 20196. Kep-KBS US Reit  —  16th Apr 20197. Kep Reit  —  17th Apr 20198. Kep Corp  —  18th Apr 20199. MapletreeInd Trust  —  22nd Apr 201910. MapletreeCom Trust  —  23rd Apr 201911. SGX  —  25th Apr 201912. UOB  —  3rd May...

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Journey To Retirement Part 5.1 — CapitaMall Trust

2019 marks the year I’ve vested in CapitaMall Trust for 1 decade and interestingly, this is the only 2nd time during that 10-year period that I am writing something about it. CapitaMall Trust was the first REIT that was listed in Singapore stock exchange in 2002 and it was also the first REIT that I’ve vested post 2008 GFC.  The reason for my investment, my take on its potential upside, downside and expectation were all listed in Journey To Retirement Part 5 — CapitaMall Trust. So what has changed for the past 10 years ?  Well it still remain...

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Portfolio — Mar 2019

Investment Portfolio 1. Received FrasesCom Trust scrip dividend, increasing holding by 1.61%, reducing Strategic Cost to $0.2183/share2. Received Mapletreelog Trust scrip dividend, increasing holding by 1.52%, reducing Strategic Cost to $0.2177/share.3. Received MapletreeInd Trust scrip dividend, increasing holding by 1.57%, reducing holding price to $0.8269/share4. Received MapletreeInd Trust scrip dividend for advanced distribution, increasing holding by 0.833%, reducing holding price to $0.8201/share5. Received CapitaR China Trust scrip dividend, increasing holding by 3.25%, reducing Strategic Cost to $0.2164/shareStock Holding Price* Market Price Unrealized Profit/Loss Dividend Return Non-Strategic CapitaMall Trust $1.155 $2.38 +103.58% +87.00% First REIT $0.5973 $0.99 +65.35% +118.42% Genting...

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STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (42)

Continued from STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (41) As mentioned previous, the correction for STI is too shallow to consider complete for a wave 2.  Thus, it is no surprising STI failed to make any powerful upside last week despite the bounce from 3183.64 on 14th Mar 2019.  However, as the way STI has performed last week, it has given out further clue since the bottom at 2955.68. Firstly, have to rule out the STI-1 scenario.  This is the case whereby STI is in Minor wave 3 with start point at 2993.42 and potential end...

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Education System Reform — Not Bold Enough !

3 decades ago when talk about self-driving car, the usual response would be “aiya, sci fiction lah”.  Now, it is no longer a sci fiction but a possibility. The world has 1G mobile phone in the 80’s (the 大哥大) which can only perform voice call but not everyone can afford it.  Then came 2G and 2.5G in the 90’s with mobile phone became a bit more affordable for everyone to own.  Apart from voice call, it was able to do text messaging.  3G became the norm at the turn of the 21st century with noticeable improvement in term of...

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STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (41)

Continued from STI Analysis —  the next peak and trough ? (40) The previous analysis mentioned about STI could be in a 5th wave extension scenario for the Minor degree.  However, with STI closing below 3200 level, that situation has to be invalidated.  In this analysis, going to re-organize things a bit.  The first thing is the bigger picture remains valid for STI, that is STI is now in SuperCycle wave 3, Cycle wave 3, Primary wave 3 and Intermediate wave 1, S3C3P3I1.  The question now is at which phase STI is in at the Minor degree.  As it...

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STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (40)

Continued from STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (39). On a bigger picture, there isn’t any change to the wave count of STI but on at lower level in particular the Minor degree, there appears to develop an alternate scenario. The above snapshot was from the previous analysis whereby STI is now in Minor wave 3 with target to be 3633.006.  This wave count so far still remain valid as no Elliott Wave rule violations were found.  The only suspicious thing is the sub level Minute degree wave count.  Should this case be valid, the Minute...

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Portfolio — Feb 2019

Investment Portfolio 1. Received SingPost dividend of 0.5 cents/share2. Entitled to CapitaR China Trust scrip or cash dividend of 4.83 cents/unit3. Entitled to MapletreeInd Trust scrip or cash dividend of 1.71 cents/unit for advance distributionStock Holding Price* Market Price Unrealized Profit/Loss Dividend Return Non-Strategic CapitaMall Trust $1.155 $2.40 +105.30% +87.00% First REIT $0.5973 $1.08 +80.39% +118.42% Genting SP $0.5314 $1.02 +91.35% +25.40% KepCorp $7.4156 $6.16 -17.30% +43.97% SIA $12.0697 $10.01 -17.47% +35.17% SingPost $1.0093 $1.01 -0.51% +48.76% MapletreeInd Trust $0.8537 $2.00 +136.74% +72.54% Kep DC Reit $0.9174 $1.47 +63.21% +26.87% Frasers Cpt Trust $1.6314 $2.29 +38.67% +23.37% Unrealized +44.97%...

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STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (39)

Continued from STI Analysis — Recap 2018 & Looking Ahead 2019. STI closed 3269.90 on 22nd Feb 2019 on track with present analysis that it is in Minor wave 3 or to be exact SuperCycle wave 3, Cycle wave 3, Primary wave 3, Intermediate wave 1, Minor wave 3 (S3C3P3I1M3). The above is generated from the Degree Calculator from Cycle degree with those already happened value highlighted.  The calculated Minor wave 3 is expected to end around 3479.897 if there is no wave 3 extension occurs. The above is the Main & Sub function of the Degree Calculator to...

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